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Series Preview: A Vote of Confidence

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Translating hits into runs will determine the series victor.

Devin Lohman is brimming with confidence this month, batting .295 in May with five multi-hit games.

Ask a dozen people what baseball is all about, and you’ll likely get a different answer every time. It’s a thinking man’s game, they’ll say, or a game of luck. Others dub it a game of failure, citing that even the sport’s greatest hitters were successful less than half the time. Branch Rickey called it a game of inches, and I’d tend to agree.

But more than anything else, baseball is a game of confidence. The job of the pitcher is disruption more than anything, getting a batter out of his comfort zone while finding the strike zone consistently. On the other end, hitters can’t just hope that they avoid a strikeout. A hard hit can move runners, put a defense on guard, distract a pitcher, and ultimately make a statement.

Think back to Saturday, a regrettable 4-2 loss to Jacksonville but one that’s hardly forgettable. Juan Duran was the first batter due up in the ninth inning, and he had a reason to be burdened. A fielding error in the top of the frame was his second of the night, and the Suns nearly capitalized on his mistake. But instead of buckling under pressure, he belted a screaming double past Austin Nola. That chip on his shoulder has carried him to one of his best streaks at the dish. A pair of multi-hit performances, including three last night, have lifted his batting average 30 points in the past week. Those hits have been timely as well; the outfielder is batting .364 with runners in scoring position.

Duran isn’t alone in the effort. Devin Lohman has silently been streaking, but he lets his bat do the talking these days. The shortstop is not only hitting the ball well, but he’s been hitting it hard. Even with a hitless night yesterday, his productivity in May has been incredible. Lohman has more hits in fewer at-bats, extra-base knocks at a higher rate, more runs batted in, and even a few stolen bases. The number to know is .389, a fantastic average in any case but more critical with runners on second or third and two outs. His glovework has been flawless in the last week, and Lohman has committed two fewers errors this season compared to last year’s pace.

Slow starts have been massive headaches and roadblocks to victory. In three of their last four series, the Wahoos had dropped the first two games. It isn’t a deal-breaker, as Pensacola started a season-best winning streak by taking the last three games of the Jackson set. Nevertheless, it still puts the pitching staff in a bind and becomes more aggravating when both of those games could have gone the other way. On May 11, the Wahoos were held to one baserunner through the first five innings but still preserved a 1-1 stalemate to the home half of the ninth. The Barons loaded the bases and walked off before Fabian Williamson could pencil in the third out. The next day’s affair was destined to be a 2-0 win before Christian Marrero smashed a three-run home run to spoil what would have been Shane Dyer‘s fifth save.

It was a weekend of missed opportunities. Pensacola scored first in every game and outhit Birmingham during the road series, but the Wahoos couldn’t translate hits into runs. If that was the problem a week ago, then the situational hitting in yesterday’s 7-2 victory was the cure. They demonstrated it best in the fifth inning, when three doubles and a pair of sacrifices broke the scoreless tie.

The bulk of the Barons’ star power has moved north since Birmingham hoisted the championship trophy, most notably 2013 Southern League MVP Marcus Semien. Four players who spent those dog days in Birmingham have made their way to Chicago since. Speedster Micah Johnson joined the list with a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte in the middle of the Wahoos’ visit. Johnson topped the minors with 84 stolen bases last season and roared out of the gate, ripping separate nine- and eight-game hitting streaks while notching a Barons-best .329 average. The newest Double-A farmhands are adapting well to the Southern League, including infielder Rangel Ravelo. One of only nine players with a .300 average or higher, he ranks second in the circuit with a .424 on-base percentage.

It’s been a streaky season so far, and their struggles have been well-publicized on the hill. Including the series opener, the Barons have lost five of their last six games. Since sweeping an April 15 twin bill in Mobile, Birmingham has won just 10 of their last 32 games. Much like the rest of the North Division, the Barons are chasing the shooting Stars, and Huntsville has a thirteen-game head start. So long as the Wahoos can keep shelling the battered Birmingham staff, bearers of a Southern League-worst 4.70 earned run average, Pensacola can challenge the Barons all the way through the finale. Most importantly, they can continue to build their confidence by dashing one team’s playoffs hopes and keeping their own alive.

RUNDOWN

2014: Season series tied at 3 games
Next meeting: August 28-September 1 (Birmingham)

Wahoos/Barons all-time game record: 18-10
Series record: 5-1-0

In Birmingham: 9-5 (5-5 at Regions Field)
In Pensacola: 9-5

Expected Starters
Pensacola 7, Birmingham 2. // WP: Daniel Corcino (4-4) LP: Chris McCully (2-4)
Thursday: RHP Robert Stephenson (2-4, 3.74) vs. RHP Chris Beck (2-6, 4.35)
Friday: RHP Jon Moscot (3-3, 2.11) vs. RHP Myles Jaye (0-6, 5.28)
Saturday: RHP Michael Lorenzen (2-2, 2.26) vs. LHP Scott Snodgress (2-3, 4.34)
Sunday: RHP Mikey O’Brien (2-2, 3.94) vs. RHP Mike Recchia (1-0, 1.80)

WHEN LAST THEY MET

Earley: 6-16 (.375; 2r, 1sb)
Pedroza: 5-14 (.357; 2b, 3r)
Ravelo: 5-13 (.385; 2b, 1rbi, 1r)
Richmond: 5-11 (.455; 2 2b, 1rbi, 1r)
Thompson: 3-14 (.214; 3b, 2rbi, 1r)
Snodgress: 1-0, 0.00 (7.0ip, 1r, 0er, 5h, 1bb, 5k)

Fun Fact: Former Wahoos reliever Parker Frazier, a midseason acquisition of the Reds in 2013, signed with the White Sox last November and joined the Barons on Opening Day. In 14 appearances with Birmingham, Frazier is 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA.

BARON TO WATCH

Trayce Thompson, OF
Bats: R        Throws: R

A second-round selection out of Santa Margarita (California) High School in 2009, Thompson didn’t take long to reach Double-A Birmingham. His first taste of the higher leagues came in 2012, when he ranked among the organizational leaders in RBI (1st/96), extra-base hits (1st/62), home runs (2nd/25), runs scored (2nd/88), and hits (5th/131). His ability to score early and often earned him midseason All-Star honors last season, when he stood among Southern League leaders in both runs (78) and RBI (73).

Baseball America rates him as the best athlete and top defensive outfielder on the White Sox farm. That athleticism runs in the family as his father Mychal was drafted first in the 1978 NBA Draft. With long arms and tremendous leverage, Thompson can definitely uncork a few balls. He has recorded double-digit dingers in three straight seasons, finishing second among the Barons last year with 15. But his strikeout rate, on the decline since whiffing one-third of the time in Class A, continues to cloud his batting average. He currently leads the circuit with 56 strikeouts in 160 at-bats, a crisp 35 percent.

His defense will carry him to Chicago, and it’s a question of when, not if, he makes his debut. But patience at the plate is still a virtue for the highly-regarded prospect.



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